The San Francisco Market Picks Up
The city’s real estate market has warmed up significantly in the last couple months. And while it is true that spring is typically a strong period for home sales, considering the fears prevalent just a few months ago, it is heartening that the market has indeed strengthened. There is a growing — but certainly not universal — consensus that the market has reached or is very close to its bottom – this belief, along with low loan rates and tax benefits, has motivated increasing numbers of buyers to act.
From April 15th to May 15th, 2009, 357 SF homes sold at a median price of $688,000 and an average price of about $880,000. Of these, 72 closed for $1,000,000 or more, 18 sold for $2,000,000+, and 5 sold for $5,000,000+. 28% accepted offers within 2-3 weeks of coming on market.
Year over year, the number of sales is down 21%, the median price is down 17% and the average price down 18%. Some of the price decrease is due to a considerable reduction in home values but some is due to the major shift towards lower priced homes that has occurred since last year. Remember that city statistics generalize the wide variety of changes that different neighborhoods are experiencing. A fair number of homes (houses more often than condos) are still selling quickly at or over asking price.
As of May 22nd, there were 1664 homes actively for sale in San Francisco and 836 homes which had accepted offers but not yet closed sale. (Not all of those will actually close escrow as the fall-out rate is still high by historical standards.) The months supply of inventory (MSI), which is one common measure of the balance of power between buyers and sellers, has been declining since the beginning of the year, though it is still about twice as high as a year ago. Our current market still qualifies as a “Buyer’s Market” but has definitely become more balanced.
What You Get for How Much Where
Recent San Francisco Sales at Selected Price Points*
For over $8,000,000
6 bedroom, 8 bath, 7100 sq.ft. 1926 Presidio Hghts brown shingle house (SFD) on Presidio wall; bay & GG bridge views, library, wine cellar, elevator, 2 fireplaces, courtyard, 2 car parking. 19 days on market.
For about $5,000,000
6 BR, 4.5 BA, 5184 sq.ft. 1908 Presidio Hghts SFD; family room, study, 3 fireplaces, bay views. $961/sq.ft. 18 days on market.
For about $4,700,000
2 BR, 3.5 BA, 2576 sq.ft. Four Seasons condo on Market St; downtown views, 1 car pkg. $1824/sq.ft. 151 days on market, original price $5,300,000.
For about $3,500,000
3 BR, 3.5 BA, 3500 sq.ft. 1929 Cow Hollow Spanish Med SFD; bay and GG bridge views, library, 1 car pkg. $997/sq.ft. 189 days on market, original price $3,995,000.
For about $3,000,000
4 BR, 3 BA, 4600 sq.ft. 1980 Clarendon Hghts contemporary SFD; downtown views, study, gym, deck, spa, 2 car pkg. $652/sq.ft. 1 day on market.
1 BR, 1.5 BA, 1693 sq.ft. 1930 Russian Hill penthouse; views of bay, 3 bridges, downtown & ocean; doorman bldg; 1 car pkg. $1734/sq.ft. 18 days on market.
For about $2,500,000
6 BR, 4.5 BA, 4008 sq.ft. 2008 Eureka Valley SFD; downtown, bay & bay bridge views, library, 3 fireplaces, deck; $636/sq.ft. 162 days on market, original price $4,299,000.
4 BR, 3.5 BA, 2176 sq.ft. 1880 Pacific Hghts Victorian; deck, 3 car pkg. $1149/sq.ft. 1 day on market, sold for $105,000 over asking price.
3 BR, 2.5 BA, 2000 sq.ft. Marina penthouse; GG bridge views, deck, pkg. $1275/sq.ft. 44 days on market.
2 BR, 2.5 BA, 1782 sq.ft. 2005 St. Regis condo in SOMA; pano water, city & bridge views, 1 car pkg. $1403/sq.ft. 68 days on market, original price $3,200,000.
For about $2,000,000
5 BR, 3.5 BA, 3700 sq.ft. 1925 St. Francis Wood Spanish Med SFD; ocean views, garden, 2 car pkg. $581/sq.ft. 277 days on market, original price $2,495,000.
4 BR, 3.5 BA, 3374 sq.ft. 1921 Noe Valley SFD; 2 decks, garden, 2 car pkg. $619/sq.ft. 47 days on market, original price $2,299,000.
3 BR, 3 BA, 2560 sq.ft. 1952 Sea Cliff SFD; study, family room, study, 2 car pkg. $820/sq.ft. 121 days on market, original price $3,000,000.
2 units, 6 & 7 room flats, 1926 Marina district, vacant, 2 car pkg. $563/sq.ft. 35 days on market.
For about $1,500,000
5 BR, 6 BA, 4170 sq.ft. 1961 Miraloma Pk SFD; canyon views, 2 car pkg. $357/sq.ft. 33 days on market.
4 BR, 4 BA, 2696 sq.ft. 1900 Noe Valley SFD on Dolores St; attached studio, 2 car pkg. $556/sq.ft. 87 days on market, original price $1,795,000.
4 BR, 3.5 BA, 3536 sq.ft. 1940 GG Hghts Doelger SFD; family rm, 2 fireplaces, 2 car pkg. $424/sq.ft.
3 BR, 2.5 BA, 1975 sq.ft. 1925 2-level Lake St Edwardian condo; 1 car pkg. $777/sq.ft. 9 days on market.
2 BR, 2 BA, 2443 sq.ft. 2002 Potrero Hill SFD; 270 degree views of downtown, bay and bridges; roof deck, garden, 1 car pkg. $612/sq.ft. 57 days on market.
2 BR, 2 BA, 1347 sq.ft. 2000 South Beach condo; bay, bay bridge and downtown views; 2 car pkg. $1110/sq.ft. 45 days on market.
For about $1,000,000
5 BR, 4 BA, 1929 Outer Richmond SFD; family room, 1 car pkg. 41 days on market.
4 BR, 3 BA, 2326 sq.ft. 1961 Forest Hill SFD; views, deck, 2 car pkg. $441/sq.ft. 102 days on market.
3 BR, 3.5 BA, 1844 sq.ft. new 3-level 2008 Inner Mission condo; 1 car pkg. $530/sq.ft. 140 days on market.
3 BR, 2 BA, 1170 sq.ft. 1907 Noe Valley Spanish Med; in-law, 2 car pkg. $857/sq.ft 14 days on market.
3 BR, 2 BA, 1866 sq.ft. 1907 Haight top flr condo; deck, views, 2 car pkg. $541/sq.ft. 20 days on market.
3 BR, 2 BA, 1764 sq.ft. 1924 2-level Duboce Park condo; 1 car pkg. $556/sq.ft. 45 days on market.
3 BR, 1 BA, 1800 sq.ft. 1912 Inner Sunset Edwardian; 2 car pkg. $557/sq.ft. 8 days on market.
3 BR, 1 BA, 1582 sq.ft. Pacific Hghts Edwardian co-op; dwntwn vws, pkg. $623/sq.ft. 34 days on market.
2 BR, 1.5 BA, 1908 Russian Hill Edwardian SFD; roof deck, office, east bay views, leased pkg; 389 days on market, original price $1,675,000.
For about $750,000
4 BR, 4 BA, 2150 sq.ft. 2008 Oceanview SFD; new construction, 2 car pkg. $352/sq.ft. 30 days on market.
4 BR, 3 BA, 2030 sq.ft. 1925 Sunnyside SFD; 1 BR cottage, 1 car pkg. $367/sq.ft. 60 days on market.
3 BR, 2 BA, 1600 sq.ft. 1941 Outer Sunset SFD; 1 car pkg. $471/sq.ft. 26 days on market.
3 BR, 2 BA, 2173 sq.ft. 3-level 1979 Diamond Hghts condo; yard, 2 car pkg. $347/sq.ft. 26 days on market.
3 BR, 2 BA, 1179 sq.ft. 1950 Glen Park SFD; deck, 1 car pkg. $635/sq.ft. 21 days on market.
3 BR, 2 BA, 1878 sq.ft. 1908 North Panhandle Victorian condo; 1 car pkg. $394/sq.ft. 105 days on market, original price $949,000.
2 BR, 2 BA, 1249 sq.ft. 1995 North Beach condo; 1 car pkg. $608/sq.ft. 18 days on market.
2 BR, 1 BA, 1558 sq.ft. 1942 Lake Shore SFD; 2 car pkg. $481/sq.ft. 29 days on market.
2 BR, 1 BA, 1050 sq.ft. 1926 Bernal Hghts SFD; 3 car pkg. $713/sq.ft. 2 days on market.
2 BR, 1 BA, 1010 sq.ft. 1908 Cole Valley Edwardian condo; deck, 1 car pkg. $752/sq.ft. 50 days on market.
For about $650,000
4 BR, 2 BA, 2174 sq.ft. Outer Mission center-patio SFD; short sale, pkg. $300/sq.ft. 133 days on market.
3 BR, 1.5 BA, 1150 sq.ft. Bernal Hghts Victorian; view, bonus rm, no pkg. $565/sq.ft. 44 days on market.
2 BR, 2 BA Mission Dolores Victorian TIC; leased pkg. 259 days on market, original price $749,000.
2 BR, 2 BA, 1217 sq.ft. South Beach condo; 1 car pkg. $533/sq.ft. 19 days on market.
2 BR, 1.5 BA, 1448 sq.ft. lower-flat Noe Valley TIC; den, 2 car pkg, yard. $440/sq.ft. 75 days on market.
2 BR, 1 BA Eureka Valley Edwardian condo; yard, 1 car pkg. 175 days on market, original price $699,000.
2 BR, 1 BA, 1300 sq.ft. Noe Valley top floor Victorian condo; no pkg; $511/sq.ft. 75 days on market.
2 BR, 1 BA, 1000 sq.ft. 1947 GG Hghts condo; 1 car pkg. $650/sq.ft. 68 days on market.
2 BR, 1 BA, 1260 sq.ft. 1940 Parkside SFD; needs work, 1 car pkg. $516/sq.ft. 2 days on market.
2 BR, 1 BA, 1303 sq.ft. 1910 Bernal Hghts top floor condo; 1 car pkg. $498/sq.ft. 36 days on market.
1 BR, 1.5 BA, 1050 sq.ft. north slope Potrero Hill SFD; 1 car pkg. $618/sq.ft. 80 days on market
1 BR, 1 BA, 768 sq.ft. 1979 Marina condo; views, patio, 1 car pkg. $846/sq.ft. 32 days on market.
1 BR, 1 BA, 819 sq.ft. 2008 So Beach condo; bay & dwntwn views; pkg. $792/sq.ft. 70 days on market.
For about $500,000
3 BR, 2 BA, 1105 sq.ft. 1950 Bayview SFD; bonus rooms, 2 car pkg. $353/sq.ft. 69 days on market.
2 BR, 2 BA, 1038 sq.ft. new Inner Mission condo; 1 car pkg. $481/sq.ft. 100 days on market.
2 BR, 1 BA, 1090 sq.ft. 1947 Ingleside Hghts SFD; 1 BR in-law, 1 car pkg. 29 days on market.
2 BR, 1 BA, 1032 sq.ft. 1925 Excelsior SFD; in-law apt, 1 car pkg, short sale. 122 days on market.
1 BR, 1 BA, Buena Vista Park Victorian TIC fixer; no parking. 57 days on market.
1 BR, 1 BA, 787 sq.ft. 2004 SOMA condo; city views, 1 car pkg. $634/sq.ft. 22 days on market.
Bank-Owned Foreclosure Sales (REO sales)*
REO sales constituted approximately 12% to 15% of home sales in San Francisco since the beginning of the 2009, a rate that has stayed relatively steady (and far below the rates of many other Bay Area counties). Through May 22nd, there were 99 REO house sales and 26 REO condo sales, ranging from a low price of $196,000 to a high of $1,320,000, with a median price of about $470,000. The average dollar per square foot for the REO house sales was $374, and for condos, $456/sq.ft. Almost 50% of REO house sales accepted offers within 2-3 weeks of going on market and, reflecting a hot market for such homes, averaged a sales price of 6% above the asking price. Though the sales listed below are from neighborhoods all over the city, in fact over 75% of the REO house sales took place in the southern border neighborhoods of the city, stretching from Bayview to Oceanview.
7 BR, 4.5 BA, 2417 sq.ft. 1916 Crocker Amazon fixer SFD; tenant, no pkg. $207/sq.ft. $499,900
4 BR, 3.5 BA, 2643 sq.ft. 1993 Visitacion Vly SFD; 2 car pkg. $238/sq.ft. 7 days on market. $628,000
4 BR, 3 BA, 1392 sq.ft. 1900 Lower Pacific Hghts Victorian fixer; 1 car pkg. $564/sq.ft. $785,000
4 BR, 3.5 BA, 3030 sq.ft. 1936 Monterey Hghts SFD; pkg. $436/sq.ft. 115 days on market. $1,320,000
4 BR, 2.5 BA, 2000 sq.ft. 1947 Miraloma Pk SFD; tenant, pkg. $315/sq.ft. 91 days on market. $630,000
4 BR, 2 BA, 1932 sq.ft. 1908 Ingleside SFD; 1 car pkg. $316/sq.ft. 15 days on market. $610,000 (sold $111,000 over asking price)
3 BR, 3 BA, 1360 sq.ft. 1900 Bayview Victorian SFD + cottage; fixer, no pkg. $210/sq.ft. $286,250
3 BR, 2.5 BA, 2380 sq.ft. 1916 Central Richmond Edwardian SFD; 2 car pkg. $403/sq.ft. 16 days on market. $960,000 (also sold $111,000 over asking price)
3 BR, 2 BA, 2241 sq.ft. 1918 Parkside SFD; 1 car pkg. $332/sq.ft. 86 days on market. $743,000
3 BR, 2 BA, 1740 sq.ft. 1991 Bayview Hghts SFD; views, pkg. $282/sq.ft. 19 days on market. $490,000
3 BR, 1 BA, 2500 sq.ft. 1905 Inner Richmond contractor’s special. $208/sq.ft. 81 days on market. $520,000
2 BR, 2 BA, 1184 sq.ft. 2004 Mission Bay condo; 1 car pkg. $524/sq.ft. 49 days on market. $620,000
2 BR, 1 BA, 1081 sq.ft. 1949 Excelsior SFD; 1 BR in-law apt, 2 car pkg. $502,000
1 BR, 1.5 BA, 896 sq.ft. 2001 Potrero Hill loft; 1 car pkg. $474/sq.ft. 44 days on market. $425,000
* Specific sales occurring 1/1/09 – 5/22/09 and not necessarily representative of general values for property type and area delineated. Exact location, condition, construction, renovations, curb appeal, views, lot size and many other factors all impact property values. SFD = single family dwelling (house). Days on market = number of days between going on market and being designated “pending sale, contingencies removed.” Square footage is based on interior living square footage and does not include decks, patios, yards, garages, unfinished basements and attics, or rooms and units built without permit (so-called “bonus room” and “in-law apts”).
The Luxury Home Market
Upper-end home sales seem to be picking up as well, though the rate of sales is still far below that of previous years. The financing situation for expensive homes continues to be difficult, so buyers for such properties typically pay all cash or put down-payments of at least 30-40% of the sales price. Though cash-rich buyers are moving back into the real estate market, until financing becomes easier, high-end sales will remain far below previous levels.
In 2009 to May 22nd, 39 houses sold for $2,000,000 or more: their average size was 4062 square feet, with an average price of $3,400,000 and an average dollar per square foot of $773. In the same period, 14 condos sold for $2,000,000 or more, with an average size of 2300 square feet, an average price of $3,000,000 and an average dollar per square foot of a whopping $1317 (think spectacular view condos in very prestigious buildings). Almost half these home sales, 21 houses and 2 condos, took place in the Pacific & Presidio Heights/Marina district. 10 house sales occurred in the Noe-Eureka-Haight area; 2 houses and 7 condos sold in the
Russian/Nob/Telegraph Hills area; and 5 high-end condos sold in the South Beach and SOMA districts. A few sales also closed in neighborhoods such as Sea Cliff and St. Francis Wood. Year over year, virtually every neighborhood saw drops of 50% or more in the number of sales of these very expensive homes.
As an indication of the increase in activity in this market segment, there are currently 20 homes priced $2,000,000+ which have accepted offers, but not yet closed sale. 12 are in the Pacific & Presidio Heights/Marina district; 3 in the Noe/Eureka/Haight district; and 2 are in the Alamo Square area.
All data from sources deemed reliable but subject to error and omission, and not warranted. 5/28/0
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